Mad Money

Cramer's three actions to happen for bullish oil

Cramer: Oil decline not over
Cramer: Oil decline not over

Jim Cramer thinks it is pretty darn shocking when you learn that the U.S. is over the 300,000 jobs created mark, and the number one commodity used to transport people to work still goes down.

What the heck is going on?

"I keep coming back to the idea that you simply can't turn off the oil spigot as quickly as some people think they can, and therefore oil is not done going down," the "Mad Money" host said.

On the flip side, Cramer is pretty sure Saudi Arabia could easily flick a switch and shut the tap off and move oil to $80. But that isn't going to happen, since Saudi Arabia has basically said not to bother them until oil gets to $60.

Lucy Nicholson | Reuters

Meanwhile, in the U.S. there are contracts already in place that can't just stop. There are plans and budgets in place that all say drill, drill, drill—and they can't stop because of the declining price of oil.

"Nevertheless, when you get a data point like we had on Friday with more than 300,000 jobs created, when you get an economy where rates are low and incomes are rising; you simply have to believe that demand will pick up next year for all commodities regardless of how hobbled other countries might be because we are, in the end, the biggest user of oil in the world," Cramer said.

Friday's inaction on moving the needle for oil indicated to the "Mad Money" host that whatever production the U.S. is capable of delivering will be more than six months down the road from now. The sellers of oil futures aren't financial players betting against a commodity. It's the marginal oil and gas producers who are strapped for cash and scraping to find income, any income, so they can make their payments and keep the lights on.

Cramer thinks Boone Pickens is right when he said there is a cycle at work. He also agrees with the CEO of PPG, Chuck Bunch, when he said lower oil will stimulate demand. He agrees with Harold Hamm, the CEO and founder of Continental Resources, when he said that his stock is too cheap to stay at that price.

But if an economy with low interest rates and booming job creation can't move oil, what will it take to be bullish on the commodity again?

Cramer thinks three things need to happen first:

No. 1: Huge number cuts and downgrades

No. 2: Major bankruptcies and defaults from the oil players who have outspent their cash flow and have been denied further credit

No. 3: Action by an established player with a deep balance sheet, to make an opportunistic acquisition and take advantage of low stock prices. Note that he said low stock prices, and not just low oil prices

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Thus far, none of these things have occurred. Not one single iota of one of these, let alone all three.

"If you aren't astonished at this move today in the price of crude after these ultra-robust employment figures—I don't know what will take your breath away."

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