Oil decline is the 'black swan' event!: Birinyi

Laszlo Birinyi
Jin Lee | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Laszlo Birinyi

Stock market guru Laszlo Birinyi says the oil price drop is what the markets have been waiting for—a "black swan" event.

"What we've seen is something people have been talking about for two, three, five years and no one is talking about it now," said Birinyi, founder of Birinyi Associates. "It's just a black swan.

A totally unpredictable event. It comes clearly out of the blue. Four standard deviations out of anything else. In a case like that, there are no perimeters. How can you say it will go to $65 or anything else? My attitude is it's the black swan, the Hurricane Sandy of the market, where you do not know where it's going, but if you want to guess go ahead. But appreciate that you're guessing."

It's not a flock of black swans that Birinyi foresees, as he expects stocks to digest the oil decline and move higher. He has a 2,100 target on the S&P 500 by year-end.

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"I'm surprised at how well it's reacted so far," said Birinyi. "At least until today, the market was counterbalanced by its gains in things like the airlines and retailers."

Oil is 43 percent off its June high, while the S&P 500 is down 3.2 percent in the same time frame. West Texas Intermediate January futures plunged 4.5 percent Wednesday to $60.94 per barrel.

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Birinyi said the stock market will steady once it's gets more information on where oil is going. "It's going to be another one of those adjustments the market is going to make," he said.

Since oil began falling, the S&P energy sector has lost 24.3 percent, while the next worst market sector, telecom, was down just 6.2 percent. In the same period, health-care stocks have risen 14.4 percent and tech has risen 9.2 percent.

"This will encourage people who are less than enamored with the stock market. They will use this as a reason to hesitate," Birinyi said.