I don't make predictions on where the S&P 500 will end up next year, but if you look at what usually powers gains in the stock market—corporate profits or multiple expansion—it seems more likely that any gains will come from increasing corporate profits. Increasing the multiple is possible, but there are many headwinds.
Let's talk about earnings growth. Until recently, most analysts were expecting earnings gains of roughly 9 percent for the S&P 500 in 2015—not far from this year's expected 7.5 percent gains—and low-single-digit revenue growth, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Unfortunately, thanks to the big drop in oil and its impact on energy stocks, there has been some disappointment on that front in the past couple weeks.
Just two weeks ago, 2015 earnings growth was estimated at 8.8 percent. As of Tuesday, it's down to 7.6 percent. Revenue is expected to grow an anemic 1.4 percent.
Most of this is due to an expected drop in oil company profits. A couple weeks ago growth in the S&P Energy sector was expected to be down 13.6 percent next year. Now it is expected to be down 21.3 percent.
That's a notable drop. Remember, Energy is roughly 9 percent of the S&P 500.