Apple's watch probably won't be 'home run,' says VC

Apple Watch not a 'home run product'?

Apple's big entry into wearables probably won't be the immediate smash hit that other new products from the company have been, according to one prominent venture capitalist.

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"The Apple Watch will not be the home run product that iPod, iPhone and iPad have been. Not everyone will want to wear a computer on their wrist," said Fred Wilson, a partner at Union Square Ventures, in a blog post.

It won't just be the Apple Watch. Wilson said that the wearable market in general will be a bit of a bust this year.

"Eventually, this market will be realized as the personal mesh/personal cloud, but the focus on wearables will be a bit of a head fake and take up a lot of time, energy and money in 2015 with not a lot of results," Wilson said. (He was an early investor in Twitter and Foursquare.)

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Apple announced its wearable device in October, but won't launch it until sometime early this year, with some analysts predicting it will be March or April before the iPhone-maker debuts the gadget.

Not all are as pessimistic on Apple's wearable bet, though. Colin Gillis, a technology analyst at BGC, said in a recent note that he expects the company to sell 30 million watches in the first four months the product is available.

To put that in perspective, Apple sold 19.4 million iPads and 11.6 million iPhones in the first four quarters after each respective product launch.

However, Gillis also said that It may be difficult for the device to produce upside to these estimates because product pricing is unsubsidized.