The Super Bowl is the most-watched television show in America, and it ends late on a Sunday night. Therefore, it's a reasonable hypothesis that trading volumes might suffer the next day. But is that really true?
In summary, the answer is no ... well, maybe. Not definitively, but possibly.
There is almost no difference in trading volumes that next day, but a couple trends do pop up. According to exclusive data and analysis from big data analytics firm 1010data, the Monday after the Super Bowl looks like any other Monday—unless the New York Giants were playing the night before, or if the game was really close.
Big Blue's effect on the Big Board
1010data focused its analysis on all Super Bowls since 1987, when the timing of the broadcast became more consistent. During that span, the Giants also played five times, and New York trading volumes the next day were some of the lowest of the year.
Owen Simpson, 1010data's director of analytics, told CNBC this isn't enough proof to say the Giants are a true factor in causing a hangover. "With just five data points, it's hard to say there is a clear cut trend." That said, it sure is suggestive of something there. Maybe just that: a suggestion.
Close games tend to have an impact on reducing trading volumes. The general trend in the data shows this to be true, and matches our expectations: People stay up later watching a nail-biter, and can tune out early if it's a blowout.
Simpson points out, however, "the very small samples size for the numbers makes this difficult to defend." So while there might be a visual trend, there isn't enough hard proof to make it statistically valid.
Remember that any analysis needs to compare Super Bowl Monday only against other Mondays—because that calendar day has the lowest average trading volume anyway. A comparison of a Monday against a full week or a full month is not accurate, because any given Monday will look light in comparison, Super Bowl or not.
Based on the data we have, it seems that there might be some slight trends toward a hangover this coming Monday, but it's too small and statistically insignificant to know if it's really true. If the Giants had been playing in a close game—then maybe we'd have more confidence.
