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Jim Cramer has been waiting with bated breath for some sort of collapse of oil. With all these talks of a $48 oil price causing oil companies to go bust, where the heck is the collapse?
Cramer has also been waiting for the junk bond market to go up in flames, now that it is flooded with $200 billion in oil and gas paper that was raised back when oil was at $90 and headed higher. How the heck is it still going strong?
Even the high-yield ETF called HYG, which includes a lot of these junk bonds, has pretty much sustained its rally since the bottom where most oil stocks hit their low. Cramer thinks that if things were really as bad as they are supposed to be, wouldn't HYG be down at least 10 to 15 percent?
"That's right, the real-time indicator of these bonds is saying not to worry, and you know what? That makes me more sanguine," said the "Mad Money" host.
Where the heck is this big obliteration?
Contrary to popular belief, Cramer suspects that oil production numbers for the first quarter won't go down. In fact, he thinks it will show immense growth and will continue to do so going forward.
Yes, rig counts are down big time and there is reduced drilling in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara. But Cramer sees that most companies are still producing like crazy, and have even had an increase in output thanks to the Gulf of Mexico, Mexico and Canada.
"I think I know the answer, the reason why the oils are still hanging in there: it's the stock market, people!"
Since the collapse of oil prices, 25 "troubled" oil companies have found a way to raise money through the stock market. In fact, these companies have come to market with a stunning $8.3 billion to help get them out of debt and fund drilling.
But that's not only it. Cramer sees three key life preserving factors in the oil patch that has kept it afloat:
No. 1 Banks haven't been requiring a ton of equity to lend money to the oil players.
No. 2 Drilling budgets have been cut dramatically, but so has the cost of drilling. It has been reduced to $20,000 a day from $29,000.
No. 3 The amount of time to drill a well has also been cut substantially. Thanks to new inventions in technology, and drilling companies selecting only their easiest properties to drill, what used to take 25 days now only eight.
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"Put it all together, and I'm making a bold call here. If oil stays even at these reduced levels, I'm calling this the crash that never happened," Cramer said.
At this point there is so much capital sloshing around in the oil patch, Cramer thinks that the state of the oil patch is certainly far from disaster. And yes, he would rather still buy restaurant and supermarket stocks right now, but investors can breathe easy knowing that the end of the oil world is not here.
"The oil stocks may not be any good, but there's no catastrophe waiting in the wings, and that's what matters," he said.