U.S. oil production continues to rise despite falling crude prices, but analysts told CNBC it is only a matter of time before output tapers off and goes negative.
Last week, the Paris-based International Energy Agency reported non-OPEC oil production rose by 270,000 barrels per day in February to 57.3 million barrels on the strength of U.S. output.
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But growth could go to zero on a month-over-month basis as soon as May, said Richard Hastings, macroeconomic strategist at Global Hunter Securities.
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"I don't think the market is looking at that," he said in a "Squawk on the Street" interview. "We're going to start to flatten out in production some time during the summer, and then the market is going to start to wake up."
Hastings continued to say the market is focused on the bloat in crude production and the hypothesis that there's too much oil in storage for prices to rise, but there is only about 29 days of supply in the United States.
Stockpiles of U.S. commercial crude stood at 448.9 billion barrels in the week ended March 6, 2015, the highest amount on record, according to the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration.
"That's a month. This is a joke. Gasoline is about a month's supply," he said, noting that hypothetical build to 650 million barrels of supply would only provide about 65 days of supply. "Some of the idea that the market would be permanently oversupplied is nonsense."
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While the market is fundamentally oversupplied, the glut is not so large that it will cause something like a 20 percent correction, said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects.
"Inventories continue to build, despite being already at pretty high levels. By no means am I saying that we are going to run out of storage space. There's lots and lots of storage space available," she said on "Squawk on the Street."
She does, however, foresee a further pullback in prices, leading to a flight from oil exchange-traded funds as investors realize they are losing money. That could exacerbate the downside to oil prices at a time when the strengthening dollar is already putting pressure on crude.
Oil is denominated in U.S. dollars, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies when the greenback firms up.
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Ultimately, Sen sees U.S. crude dropping to the low $40s while returns to January's price range in the high $40s. Hastings said it is possible the U.S. contract falls to $38.
U.S crude touched a session low of $42.85, its weakest level since March 2009, on Monday. Brent crude fell to $52.50 before regaining some ground.