U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday as investors attempted to find clarity on the timing of an interest rate hike amid concerns of the dollar's impact on earnings.
""My quick take would be it looked like some kind of asset allocation today where people were selling stocks and buying bonds," said Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading. "We have to come back to the currency trade. The dollar is trying to find it's bottom here after the Fed meeting—that would be a headwind for equities. I also think the earnings picture is not that great."
The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 105 points, passing the triple-digit line in the last few minutes before the close.
"I think you've got a number of cross currents right now in the market," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial. "The tug of war on oil is almost equivalent to the tug of war on interest rates."
Crude oil settled up 6 cents at $47.51 a barrel. The U.S. dollar edged slightly higher against major world currencies. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield traded near 1.88 percent.
"The clear path we had before the Fed meeting has been interrupted," Krosby said, referring to the strong dollar, weaker euro story from last week. She also noted some profit-taking in the few days before companies begin reporting first quarter results in April.
"People are beginning to digest issues corporations are having with the volatility of the dollar," said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, noting that the first quarter is expected to show the first negative earnings comparisons since 2009.
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Last Wednesday, the dovish Fed statement indicated a rate hike would come later, and at a more gradual pace.
"I think whenever you're dealing with interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve, the market goes into a period of good news (is) bad news," said Timothy Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors. "Really, that's a short-term phenomenon. We're going to be moving out of that. Most of the data today ... was pretty good."
Stocks initially shook off losses on news that February new home sales rose 7.8 percent to 539,000, the highest level in seven years, the U.S. Department of Commerce said.
"You need to have news significantly better to change our mind about monetary policy," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. He noted that new home sales make up a much smaller percentage of the housing market than existing home sales, which indicated continued shortage of properties.
A slower housing market would further dampen the Fed's outlook on U.S. economic growth and likely push an interest rate hike further out.
"Really not much is happening today. We had incrementally positive economic news today," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank. "Any impending Fed action is months away. We're preparing for first-quarter earnings reports...which are expected to be negative."
Investors continue to eye the dollar, which traded mostly flat after surging in the last few weeks.
Stocks have tended to trade higher on a weaker dollar, and decline on a stronger dollar. Many multinational firms pointed to FX headwinds as weighing on their fourth-quarter earnings.
"If the dollar stays at these (lower) levels, then the indexes could hit record highs," Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital, adding he believes the S&P 500 could hit 2,125 and the Nasdaq 5,075.
The euro traded higher against the dollar, near $1.09, following better-than-expected business surveys. Business activity in the euro zone hit a 46-month high in March, according to data released on Tuesday, bolstering hopes that growth in the region is becoming more entrenched.
The positive data boosted European equities to close higher on Tuesday.
Investors also kept an eye on the ongoing negotiations between Greece and the euro zone,
"I know we've seen it 10 times, but they're cutting it close," Hogan said. "Other than that we have stability in all market classes... which feels weird."
"We sort of go through a vacuum of information before earnings season," he said. "Stabilization is with us until we get some kind of catalyst. That's ok because we're 1 percent off all-time highs. ... It feels like this market wants to consolidate sideways and that's healthy as well."