Treasuries have been on a tear over the last month, with the yield on the 10-year now hovering below 1.9 percent.
But if history is any indication, they could encounter some short-term trouble when the Fed releases its minutes Wednesday.
That's because over the past two years, U.S. Treasury 10-year note futures have fallen 73 percent of the time on the day the meeting minutes are released compared to the previous day, according to analysis using the quantitative tool Kensho.
"Markets never move in one direction all the time, so I think it is time to sell bonds," said Jim Iuorio, managing director of TJM Institutional Services.
And with the Fed's Open Market Committee set to release its March meeting notes Wednesday, many traders are hoping it will reveal more clues to the Fed's mindset.
"The first thing the Fed is going to say is not that they're going to raise rates," speculated Scott Nations, founder of NationShares. "But they're going to start talking—and they've already started this to a certain degree—about the path that they're going to take to higher rates. They're going to talk about the fact that it's going to be gentle. But what that means is they've already decided to raise rates."
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Bond prices have been on the rise over the past month. That has brought down rates, which move in the opposite direction of prices. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has fallen to 1.9 percent from 2.1 percent over the past month.
For some time, the markets had been preparing for a possible rate hike in June but now it isn't such a sure bet. Friday's dismal jobs data, showing just 129,000 jobs added instead of the expected 245,000, added more bricks to the market's Wall of Worry.
Even those who view the economy's growth as anemic see yields moving higher and are fans of the idea of selling Treasury futures now, even as a short-term trade.
"I not only like this trade, I actually almost love this trade," said Iuorio. "I think maybe the yield goes up close to 2 percent in the short term and then turns around."
Disclosure: CNBC's parent NBCUniversal is a minority investor in Kensho.
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