Alcoa kicks off earnings season tonight ... or does it?

Pisani's market open: Earnings recession drivers

While Alcoa is not the big name it used to be, and it is arguable that the earnings season does not really start until banks begin reporting next week, it still represents the kickoff to earnings season, at least among old-timers.

And since we have a huge new data sandbox to play in, I asked our partners at Kensho what happens in the quarter when Alcoa reports earnings above or below expectations. Here's what the data revealed:

Since 2005, Alcoa beat 16 times, and missed 23 times.

When Alcoa did beat, the was up 75 percent of the time for quarter and averaged a return of 4.4 percent.

When Alcoa missed, the S&P 500 was up 65 percent of the time, but the average return was -0.24 percent.

In other words, an Alcoa beat does seem to correlate with a somewhat stronger S&P 500.