"The 'calming' in eastern Ukraine," high interest rates and a stabilization of oil prices have helped strengthen the Russian currency against the dollar in recent months, Simon Quijano-Evans, Commerzbank's head of emerging markets research, explained via email.
But a rising ruble might not be music to Moscow's ears.
"Authorities will probably want to avoid an acceleration in the ruble's strength, which essentially means that the central bank needs to cut rates again in a meaningful way, with at least 200 bp to come end-April, and perhaps even an extraordinary meeting delivering a cut beforehand," Quijano-Evans predicted.
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Commerzbank's year-end forecast currently stands at 50 rubles against the dollar.
"We do think that a reaction by the authorities, coupled with expectations of a Fed rate hike will lead to a calming in the appreciation trend," he said.
"However, if this continues in spite of central bank action, we are going to have revise our forecasts towards a stronger ruble."