The Federal Reserve could raise rates as soon as June or September of this year, and while it's widely expected, what's still unknown is how the markets will ultimately react to the move. The last time the Federal Reserve raised rates was in June 2006, and there have been three times since 1994 that the markets have faced a rate hike after a lull like the U.S. is seeing now.
Here's what happened those three times, according to Kensho,a market analytics tool. Both the materials sector and the industrials sector traded positive 100 percent of the time in the three months leading up to the hikes, with average returns of 11.64 percent and 9.95 percent, respectively. The worst performing sectors during that time were consumer staples and utilities stocks, both with average returns down about 1 percent.
Things didn't look as bright three months after a rate hike. The only sector that held a positive average return is the energy sector, which posted gains of about 2 percent, and it only managed to stay in the green about a third of the time. The worst performers following a rate hike were consumer staples, which clocked in an average return down more than 7 percent and the financials right behind them down about 5 percent on average in that three-month period.
On CNBC's "Fast Money" on Thursday trader Tim Seymour said things might not pan out that way this time.
"The reason why industrials and materials were up in those past environments, that's because the markets and global economy or the U.S. economy were so strong that these things were the ubercyclical ways to play it," he said.
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