This used to be an easy year for macro traders.
But as all winning trades eventually do, both oil and the dollar have stalled or turned around of late. Over the past 1½ months, the Dollar Index has been down 3 percent, and oil has gone up more than 30 percent.
"By now, the professional community is receptive to the trend shocks in the major asset themes of the last nine months… continuing to cause 'inconvenience,'" Neil Azous of advisory firm Rareview Macro wrote in a note Monday to clients. "The consensus view remains that these trend shocks are just cyclical adjustments in a medium-term secular theme given the performance runs they have had over that period of time."
However, in an email to CNBC, Azous said the recent countertrend action may add up to more than a mere speed bump.
"I think we are coming up to a new inflection point where these 9-15 month trends may be challenged further," Azous wrote.
The big upcoming event, at least for the dollar, may be Wednesday's Federal Reserve statement.
Azous said "the naysayers want to argue that the FOMC meeting this Wednesday is a non-event," but the Fed could well end up giving a hint about when it may look to raise short-term rates.