Talk about anti-social. Shares of Twitter and LinkedIn have fallen a respective 26 and 22 percent since reporting earnings last week. But the biggest name in the space—Facebook, has held up relatively well, and according to one trader who relies heavily on both the technicals and the options market, the social giant is setting up for a big move higher.
On Monday's "Trading Nation," analyst Andrew Keene said if the charts are any indication, Facebook is getting ready to hit "new highs."
Looking at a one-year Facebook chart, he noted that the stock is testing key support at its 100-day moving average, which has been a positive development for the shares over the past 52 weeks. "We saw a similar test of this back in December and February, where the stock found buyers and rallied to new highs," said the founder of Keene on the Market. "I think Facebook can head back to those highs by September."
The social network's shares are currently down roughly 8.5 percent from the all-time high hit in late March. In addition to testing key support, Keene said Facebook is in a clear bullish uptrend channel. Technicians often look at these patterns to anticipate where a stock might go next.
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So to make a bullish bet on Facebook, Keene looked to the options market. Specifically, he purchased the September 80/90/100 call butterfly for a $2.40 debit. This is a bullish strategy where a trader will buy a call, sell two middle strike calls and then buy a higher strike call all in the same expiration. This trade is essentially targeting the two calls that he sold. So, in Keene's case, he is looking for Facebook to go to $90, or 14 percent higher by September expiration.
The trade is profitable if Facebook is between $82.40 and $97.60 by September. "This is a huge $15 range where I can potentially make money," said Keene. If Facebook were to hit the top of the range at $97.60, that would a 23 percent rally from current levels in the next four months.
"I think Facebook is going above $90," said Keene.
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