After falling to near record lows this year, U.S. bond yields are rising fast, leaving many investors fearing that we could be witnessing the end of a historic run in U.S Treasurys. But while bond watchers focus on economic data for clues on where rates are going next, one well-known strategist says not to look at the U.S. economy, but rather overseas.
On CNBC's "Futures Now," bond expert Ira Jersey suggested on Tuesday that Europe, specifically the German bund, holds the key to where U.S. rates will go next. And by his work, the selling might be over.
"When we were at about 10 basis points on the German 10-year yield, the consensus was it was going to go to zero," said Jersey, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse. "But once we started to see crude oil rise and some positive data out of Europe, people thought maybe things weren't right."
Rates in the U.S. have fallen despite rising stock prices and falling unemployment, typically two things that weigh on bond prices. And according to Jersey, the move higher in U.S. treasurys has been fueled by heavy buying of foreign bond yields. The benchmark German 10-year yield is at 50 basis points, considerably lower than the U.S. 10-year bond.
However, in a sudden turn of events, German bonds have been selling off, and that has hurt prices for U.S. bonds. Bond prices and yield move inversely.
According to Jersey, the selling pressure in German bonds may soon abate, spelling relief for U.S. investors.
We suspect there may be some stabilization [soon], but there certainly could be some [continued short-term] weakness on the horizon, given how many people played along with the ECB and started to buy a lot of German and other core European yields."
And despite increased fears of more selling pressure at home, Jersey said the U.S. is the safest place for investors to look for yield.
"The correlation between Europe and the U.S. over the past 12 to 13 months has been quite astounding," said Jersey. "The fact is the U.S. is, ironically, the high yielding of the major bond markets. If you look at where Japanese yields are and you look at where German yields are, the U.S. is the liquid market when you need some type of yield," he added, noting that compared to 50 basis points in Germany, U.S. yields are quite substantial.
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