The price of oil collapsed from near-$120 a barrel in June last year to lows of around $45 a barrel in January, although it has since bounced back to around the $60-a-barrel level. Analysts are now contemplating oil's "new equilibrium," with a slew of market watchers predicting that prices could climb to around $70 before the end of the year.
However, Goldman Sachs said the price may have gotten ahead of itself and warned that oil was now trading at a premium compared to to its own "still weak fundamentals."
These weak fundamentals include rising stockpiles of oil, it explained, and production growth is expected next year from low-cost producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia.
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Added to this, Courvalin and his team said that the decline in the number of operational rigs in the U.S. wouldn't be large enough to put production on a "persistent downward trend." Meanwhile, U.S. producers are expected to ramp up production again if the WTI price settles above $60 a barrel.
Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs accepted that this "sequential decline" might not begin until later in the year.
"With evidence at hand that U.S. producers responded aggressively to low prices, the burden of proof has shifted to how they will respond to the recent recovery and whether low-cost producers can sustainably deliver higher production," Courvalin said.
"This may, as a result, delay the sequential decline in prices until this fall, especially as we approach a period of seasonally stronger summer demand."