Market Insider

Why Treasury yields could be topping

What's the trade on rising rates?
What's the trade on rising rates?

Treasury yields shot higher Wednesday morning and then fell back like a deflating balloon.

That could be a sign of a top, at least for the 10-year note.

MacNeil Curry, global head of technical strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said he was looking for a top between 2.305 and 2.328 percent on the 10-year yield. "That was the zone we were looking for because it was the top of the channel from the January highs of 2014. This whole downtrend started back in January, a year and a half ago," he said.

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The 10-year yield overshot his target, reaching a high of 2.36 percent.

"You had a whole bunch of momentum divergences, which is often a precursor to a market turn, indicating the trend is getting ready to exhaust itself. The 2.238 is a big swing target," he said.

Curry said there was a "pretty decent reversal formation."

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"We're in the process of topping out. It might go higher in the short terms so I wouldn't care. I have pretty high conviction," he said.

He is looking for a move down to 2.20 percent. "A break of 2.200 percent confirms a top and clears the way for 2.099 percent," he noted.

Curry said the same trend could be starting in the 30-year.