— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on May 26, Tuesday.
India's BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi just completed 1 year in power.
No government in India's short history as an independent nation was voted to power with so much at stake.
The Nifty index has gained about 16% in the last 12 months. But the year has not been without controversy - India's opposition parties calling his time in office "very high on promises and very low in achievement."
So is Modi living up to the hype?
Well let's start with GDP growth....
Economy is expected to have grown 7.4% last fiscal year that just ended on March 31 ...according to the government statistics office.
Sounds good right?
But here's the catch, India recently changed the way it calculates GDP. The jury is still out on how credible these new numbers are.
But the important data point is Inflation
It has slowed considerably in the last 1 year.
Consumer price inflation has slowed to well below the central bank's 6% target - thanks to the almost 50% drop in oil prices. And the RBI has in turn gifted the government 2 rate cuts this year.
Reforms....Now this has been worrying investors and the markets off late.
"Make in India" - his flagship project aims to raise manufacturing's share in the economy to 22% by 2022 from the current 16%.
[Rajiv Biswas, IHS Global Insight] "I think he's certainly rolling a great sense of confidence in India and among global investors. He's very successful in international stage, rolling investors in Japan, US, Germany and China as well. So I think that's been a big success. I think the problems that he confronts at home are quite significant. What we haven't really seen yet is the actual real ecnomomy, showing any significant revival."
But for investments to flow, landmark reforms - notably on labor, land, taxation and infrastructure - have to take off.
But many of them are yet to be delivered.
So what are the big risks that could break Modi's stride?
The WEATHER is a big wildcard
Till 'MAKE IN INDIA' takes off, agriculture is still going to be the biggest contributor to the economy.
And if predictions for a poor monsoon and El Nino become a reality, food crops could be affected and the central bank may hold off on rate cuts due to inflation fears.
REBOUND IN OIL PRICES
And another risk on the inflation side...a rebound in oil prices.
This seems improbable now...but if prices do rise.... it could end a lot of the advantages that the government is enjoyng on the fiscal side.
FED RATE MOVE
And last but maybe not least, is the Fed - and this is mainly for the markets.
A replay of the taper tantrum, and possible capital outflows, could also force the RBI to tighten rates again to defend the rupee.
[GUPTA Deutsche Bank Head of Equities, India 20/05] "The real interest rate in india amnog the highest right in asia now and we've got WPI runnin at negative and you've got inflation coming off despite month to month increase food inflation and despite significant increases in fuel prices. And the mkt is already expecting 25 bps cut in June policy and our deutsche expectation is another 25 bps rate cute in the next policy unless we have a bad moonsoon and a spike in food inflation."
As one analyst put it when interviewed by CNBC, there were "sparks but no fireworks" for Modi, and there's still a long way to go after his first 365-day honeymoon.
CNBC's Qian Chen, reporting from Singapore.
[HRH Khaled bin Alwaleed]
P-ALWALEED=FATHER JORDAN -
(LEAD IN QUESTION: your father has Major investments all over the world and many people look at him when they are willing to invest to see what he is up to. What's his influence on what you do in terms of investments and in terms of planning?)
everything I do goes back to him and goes back to the teaching and then the history that I've had at with learning a lot of the ways that he's done business and then focusing on what companies to invest in and all of that.
Because he takes risks, doesn't he?
02 08 35 He does take risks but he takes calculated risks and that's the main thing that ive learned throughout the years. Ive had a few blunders in my life but then after refocusing on what I need to do and refocusing on what would my father do , what would other investors do, other successful investors do and I really do focus on specific industries and then specific sectors and I really do focus on that.
Tell me what excites you about Jordan. What kind of projects are you out here because we know that K Abdullah is very very interested in green technology.
HRH:: Well we'll focus on green for now and we're our main objective right now is to focus on alternative energy and really energy conservation also and so we're talking to the government right now to offer LED lights throughout the country. That would create about 50% less energy consumption for the country. The other project is going to be speed cameras. Speed radar, speed cameras so to speak and the other project would be infrastructure, construction and ground handling for an airport that we have here in Jordan END HERE
I'm hoping it will be a lot sooner than 25 years. I think there was a recent study that I've read that if Saudi Arabia continues the way it's going (which I am sure it won't) but if Saudi were to continue the way it's going in terms of its heavy dependence on oil and its consumption of oil, we will be an oil importing country in just 2030. I believe and that's a dangerous statement to say. Alternative energy is definitely the future. I know how clichéd that sounds, but in reality it is. So alternative energy is one of the main things we need to focus on in Saudi, wind, solar is one of the main things we need to focus on, battery technology is one of the main things that we need to really focus on so.
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