WASHINGTON, May 28, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PredictIt.org, the real-money political prediction market of Victoria University, has now surpassed 2 million shares traded since launching on October 31, 2014, after receiving the go-ahead from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Division of Market Oversight ("CFTC"). The market has already far surpassed the number of traders of the former Intrade — which was shut down in March 2013.
Considered "the stock market for politics", PredictIt harnesses the wisdom of crowds in a real-money marketplace, consisting of nearly 17,000 users who can invest in the outcome of future events such as U.S. elections, congressional approval ratings, or U.K. parliamentary elections.
"The market is enjoying solid increases in numbers of new traders and activity from existing traders," said John Aristotle Phillips of Aristotle International, a provider of anti-fraud and other services for the market. "The enthusiasm for futures markets like PredictIt has translated into greater liquidity across the marketplace and increasing forecasting accuracy."
Questions with greatest liquidity at the moment include whether Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee (39,570+ shares traded), whether Jeb Bush will be the GOP nominee (25,204+ shares traded) and which party will win the White House in 2016 (26,000+ total shares traded). Issue-based questions are also thriving, with a same-sex marriage question leading the way at 43,091+ shares traded.
PredictIt is not a gambling site like overseas sports betting parlors Paddy Power and Betfair, which offer some betting on elections. Unlike those betting sites, PredictIt operates in a similar manner to the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), offering investors the opportunity to trade predictions on the outcomes of a wide variety of political events.
Operating under a No-Action letter received from the CFTC, PredictIt allows up to 5,000 people to invest up to $850 each on any one particular outcome. The marketplace currently consists of over 200 questions.
Prediction markets have an impressive track record of being incredibly accurate, and experts maintain that re-framing the question from intention to expectation produces better forecasting results. One reason is that, in contrast to traditional political polling, PredictIt traders invest in the outcome that they think is most likely to happen, instead of what they would like to happen, in the form of binary options.
Phillips continued, "There is a growing appetite in the U.S. for citizens wishing to express their political knowledge. The number of players has doubled every month and we expect this trend to accelerate now that the 2016 election season is underway."
PredictIt is a real-money site that tests your knowledge and skill regarding the making and trading of predictions concerning political events. A project of Victoria University of Wellington, PredictIt is set up to research the potential value of prediction markets in understanding the future. In accordance with the terms of the CFTC No-Action letter, PredictIt is unregulated, experimental, and is operated for academic purposes.
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