If you're going to see the new movie "San Andreas" this weekend, don't worry about getting there early to beat the crowds.
The $110 million earthquake disaster movie won't be profitable in the U.S., according to a model by Adobe Digital Index based on chatter on more than a dozen social sites. The figures, which were first shared with CNBC, use social mentions to predict domestic profitability. Two years and 24 major movies later, it still hasn't been wrong.
Likewise, expect empty theaters and disappointed production companies for "Aloha" (also out Friday) and "Hitman: Agent 47" (Aug. 21). As for the winners, the model expects higher domestic sales than expenses for "Minions" (July 10), "Jurassic World" (June 12) and "Ant-Man" (July 17).
"The trailers and the marketing for a movie is really what causes the buzz peak to occur or not occur," said Tamara Gaffney, principle research analyst for Adobe Digital Index. "What we are really seeing is the shadow effect of how excited people feel when they're exposed to those marketing materials."