Back to OPEC and the excitement over the official output level of 30 million barrels a day.
Too many times over the past decade I have stood outside the Secretariat in Vienna, first on Obere Donaustrasse and then Helferstorferstrasse, after a production decision, only to be confounded by the market moving on the back of it.
Why so much volatility when the real production levels haven't even moved?
The answer is -- as often as not -- about sentiment. And it's sentiment again at this June meeting of OPEC that is key.
Read MoreWatch out: How OPEC might surprise you
Unlike in November last year when, surprisingly for many, Saudi Arabia changed its historical strategy and led OPEC to leave production at 30 million barrels a day in order to face down higher-cost competitors, this time around, no-one will be surprised by a rollover of current levels.
That said, actual production is currently around 31 million barrels per day, so once again it would only be a justification of current output if OPEC was to actually hike, much to the annoyance of the likes of Venezuela and Nigeria who desperately need higher prices.