Panic is sweeping through the bond market, but according to one top technician's chart work, the selling may soon abate.
"We can all agree there will be time for higher rates," Evercore ISI's Richard Ross said. "But [this week's] textbook reversals in the [U.S.] 10-year at 2.4 percent strongly suggest that the time for higher rates is not now."
Ross sees the 10-year yields as having made a base of support over the past eight months. He maintains that yields hit critical upside resistance around the 2.4 percent level on Wednesday.
"We think rates [will] go lower and should retest 2.07 on the 10-year," said Ross. That would correspond to the technically significant 150-day moving average.
Since bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields, Ross expects a rally in the bonds. To play lower rates, he is looking at the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (trading under the ticker TLT) to trade higher.
Ross' charts show the TLT as testing the $118 level of support. He suspects the recent spike below that level was merely a false breakdown in the pattern that will instead propel bonds higher.
"Oftentimes the neckline of that pattern provides a springboard to higher [bond] prices," Ross said. "At this point, that's exactly what happens here. I think we get a strong bounce off $118, [taking] us up to around $126. That should coincide with a pullback and rates from 2.30 [percent], where we are today."
But investors should brace themselves for a bumpy ride ahead in U.S. bonds, according to fund manager Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management. He sees the European bond market as one of the main drivers of American volatility.
The European Central Bank only recently began its own 1 trillion euro bond-buying stimulus program, several months after the U.S. ended its own. Schlossberg said that volatility is higher as a result of the market's efforts to front-run the ECB by buying up European bonds ahead of the central bank.
ECB President "Mario Draghi himself admitted that there's going to be a lot more volatility," said Schlossberg. "Volatility is certainly translating itself into the FX world, but it could also come back across the Atlantic and hit us hard as well."
In late January, U.S. Treasury 10-year yields were as low as 1.65 percent. German 10-year bund yields hit a record low of just 0.08 percent in late April. On Thursday, they were yielding 2.3 and 0.84 percent, respectively.
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