Federal Reserve

Consumer expectations of job loss hit a new low in May: NY Fed


People's expectations that they might lose their jobs hit a new low in May, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported on Monday.

But at the same time, there were signs in the report that people do not necessarily expect their wages or spending to grow much either.

The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations is an Internet-based poll of 1,200 heads of household nationwide. Some of the respondents to the survey are from the same pool as The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey.

The NY Fed poll found the "mean perceived probability" of losing a job at 13.8 percent, an all-time low for the survey.

But it also found that forecasts for wage growth over the next year declined to 2.3 percent, as both younger workers and workers making more than $100,000 reigned in their expectations.

The probability of workers leaving their job voluntarily over the next year —a proxy for people seeking higher wages elsewhere—also declined slightly.

There were also some cautionary signs in how much people expected to spend.

Median expectations for household spending one year ahead rose slightly, but were at the low end of the survey's historical range.

Expected spending growth rose for younger, lower-income and lower-education respondents but fell for those with college educations and those with high income.