PPI and consumer sentiment could get overshadowed

Producer price inflation data and consumer sentiment could be overshadowed Friday by bond market gyrations.

Stocks rose Thursday after better-than-expected retail sales data, and as Treasury yields reversed course, falling after a successful 30-year auction. The German 10-year bund yield led the way, with its biggest one- day drop in two years, while the U.S. 10-year yield fell to 2.37 percent after hitting a high yield of 2.50 for the first time since Oct. 1.

The PPI, reported at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to have gained 0.4 percent in May, while consumer sentiment is expected to improve to 91.5 from 90.7.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
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"I think the movement down in yields was surprising," said Jim Caron, global portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Caron said it's possible there was a "blow off" after the 10-year yield hit 2.5 percent. That could suggest that the market is topping out.

"I've always been of the contention that it's going to be really hard for 10-year Treasury yields to be above 2.5 percent unless the data shows it's gotten better," he said.

Traders had been selling Treasurys this week as new supply was set to come onto the market. New debt was issued by the U.K., Japan, and Italy and there were a number of new corporate issues Thursday, including Morgan Stanley, Caterpillar, Devon Energy and Ford.

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"You were back to 2014 levels" before the rally, said Ward McCarthy. "It's one of these situations where the market backed up enough to attract the buy side. I think we'll continue to see a lot of volatility ahead of the FOMC meeting next week." The Fed isn't expected to take action at its rates meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, but it could adjust its economic forecast and rate hike expectations.

Twitter could also be a highlight, after its stock gained 5 percent in the after hours on news that CEO Dick Costolo resigned.

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What to Watch

8:30 a.m.: PPI

10 a.m.: Consumer sentiment

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