Calculus on oil price changing as Iran talks wobble

A file photo shows an Iranian worker at the South Pars field in the southern Iranian port town of Asaluyeh.
Atta Kenare | AFP | Getty Images

Iran has been a wild card in the oil market, and it looks like it could stay that way for awhile.

The deadline for a nuclear agreement with the U.S. and five other countries is Tuesday. But the timing appears to be slipping, as the walkup to that date has been met with negative rhetoric from Iranian hardliners.

"From a geopolitical standpoint, it could add a lot of uncertainty. From a short-term standpoint, I think the oil implications are that anyone who is thinking Iranian oil is getting to the market soon will have to reconsider," said Greg Valliere, chief political strategist at Potomac Research.

What that means for current oil prices is apparent, but the future impact is more complicated.