The Greek debt drama has been hanging over markets for years now, and with each new critical deadline, there has been a heightened sense of anxiety.
But history shows, the U.S. stock market has more or less been able to take the fears about potential default and crisis in stride. ( Tweet This )
CNBC used quantitative analysis tool Kensho to look at 16 instances back to 2011 in which there were indications of Greece potentially exiting the European Union.
The Kensho study found that if an investor bought on the rumor the day before the event and sold on the day of the event, U.S. markets were indifferent to the news, trading flat on the day of the event.
- The S&P 500 is up 68.75 percent of the time with an average return of 0.01 percent
- The Dow is up 50 percent of the time with an average return of 0.00 percent
- The Nasdaq Composite is up 56.25 percent of the time with an average return of -0.04 percent
European stocks, particularly those in Greece, had a more negative response.
- Global X Greece 20 ETF (GREK) is only positive 20 percent of the time on the day when there was an indication that Greece may leave the EU, with an average negative return of -2.34 percent
Note: This ETF has only been trading for 15 of the 16 occurrences. Its inception date was Dec. 7, 2011.
- Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) is up only 31.25 percent of the time, with an average negative return of -0.22 percent
- iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG) is up only 31.25 percent of the time, with an average negative return of -0.17 percent
- iShares Europe ETF (IEV) is up only 37.5 percent of the time, with an average negative return of -0.21 percent
- WTI is up only 43.75 percent of the time with an average return of -0.47 percent
- Gold has the highest average return of 0.32 percent but is only positive 50 percent of the time
- The Dollar Index is positive 62.5 percent of the time with an average return of 0.10 percent
- EUR/USD is a coin toss, up 50 percent of the time with an average return of -0.03 percent
John Burke, CEO of Burke Financial Strategies, said that even as stocks react in the short-term to headlines on Greece, the moves are moderate.
In fact, despite mounting pressure for Greece and its creditors to reach a deal before June 30, the S&P 500 has slowly crept higher with 3 percent gains year to date. During the recent round of headlines, though, the S&P has been basically flat, losing a scant 0.3 percent in the eight weeks ending Friday.