Mad Money

Cramer—Greece is about to become the next Venezuela

Cramer: Greece next Venezuela... without oil

At this point with all of the Greece drama in Europe affecting the market, Jim Cramer thinks there must be a magician out there working a bit of magic. It seems like every time he thinks the averages have gone down for the count, the market pulls a rabbit out of the hat.

Just take a look at the fantastic run that the health-care group had on Thursday. The Supreme Court upheld Obamacare, which led to an amazing rally in the hospitals. On top of that, Aetna finally made its bid for Humana, and Anthem made attempts to buy Cigna.

Why does the market need these magic tricks so badly?

Greece, of course! Cramer thinks that the talks that are happening with Europe are really nothing like anyone imagined they would be.

"I think Greece isn't going to make a single concession from here on. They have nothing to lose! This government was elected to default. That's what it wants to do," Cramer said. (Tweet This)

A European Union and a Greek national flag flutter in front of the Parthenon temple in Athens February 11, 2015.
Alkis Konstantinidis | Reuters

In fact, Cramer thinks that Greece is telling the Germans to either cut the debt load to a management level, such as 30 cents on the euro now, or it will default and creditors will get 30 cents on the euro later but in the form of drachmas. It will be a euro versus drachmas showdown.

Cramer suspects that Greeks really just want economic support from Germany, which has been the biggest beneficiary of the euro. German companies have been able to dominate Europe, thanks to the euro. Meanwhile, everyone else in Europe is just treading water.

Essentially, the Greeks are saying that they have sacrificed enough, and now they want Germany to sacrifice. Likewise, the Germans want to punish Greece for being reckless with its money. Thus, there is no agreement here, and the talks have been hostile.

This is exactly why Cramer refers to German Chancellor Angela Merkel as Herbert Hoover in a pantsuit. Because when the U.S. was going into the Great Depression, President Hoover refused to allow the government to intervene with the economy until the very end, when it was almost too late.

That also seems to be Merkel's view on Greece, Cramer said. She thinks it is their own fault, and they need to pay up.

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"I think that, at a certain level, it's Germany's fault, as well as the rest of Europe, that they lent Greece so much money. You know they never believed Greece could pay it back anyway, so why did they lend it in the first place?" Cramer asked.

At this point, the "Mad Money" host thinks that the market understands that Greece is about to become another Venezuela—except without the oil.

So what should investors expect?

Cramer thinks this nonsense will continue until his bleak view becomes the consensus. There may be a few magical moments here and there, but those moments will not convince him to change his mind. He will not be bullish, and the pain will not end until either the German lady sings or the Greeks dance.

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