— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on June 29, Monday.
Welcome to CNBC Busines Daily, I'm Qian Chen.
Greece's place in the euro zone entered a dangerous stage after the European Central Bank decided to keep the emergency funding to the country's banks at current levels.
Despite prior assurances from his government, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said Sunday that he had forced the country's central bank to recommend a bank holiday and capital controls.
Tsipras also called a referendum for July 5, in which Greeks will vote on whether to accept the rescue funding offered by international creditors. A no vote is seen as likely leading to Greece's exit from the euro zone.
The Athens stock exchange will also be closed as the government tries to manage the financial fallout of the disagreement with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Greece's banks, kept afloat by emergency funding from the European Central Bank, are on the front line as Athens moves towards defaulting on a 1.6 billion euros payment due to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday.
[Christine Lagarde, IMF] "If they were not paid on Tuesday night, then there is a series of procedures and notifications that I have to initiate. But technically, any country that does not pay on due date is in payment arrears vis-à-vis the Fund. And the consequences are that the Fund cannot disburse vis-à-vis that country until the arrears has been paid."
Still, analysts say, the most important medium-term question on what happens after Sunday's referendum remains, and THAT sets IMF's payment tomorrow as a side story.
A negative vote will be perceived by the Greek government as a strong mandate to pursue changes to the current proposed framework, but in the face of a non-functional banking system.
As has been evidenced over the last few months, the scope for creditor flexibility would likely be limited, leaving the possibilities of a potentially more targeted bank recapitalization program without state financing or Eurozone exit as the most likely alternatives.
The outcome of a "yes" vote would be equally uncertain however.
Finance ministers yesterday highlighted the important credibility issues that would arise from Greek government implementation of an agreement it campaigned against. A government change and a cabinet of national unity - possibly under the pressure of a continuously strained banking system - would be the most likely outcome.
[MEGAN GREENE, Manulife Asset Management, MD & Chief Economist] "If there's a NO vote in the referendum, it makes Greece existing Eurozone much more likely, but it doesn't necessarily end all of these method.You know, things can go much longer.12:10:45 Even if Greece doesn't have any deal with creditors, it can keep capital control, eventually to make payroll to civil servants, and payoff pensions. And the government will have to start to print its own currency. But even in that case, Greece could run with the parallal currency for quite a while. 12:11:03 I think a lot of people assume a "No" vote means an automated exit from the Eurozone, that's not the case. 12:11:10 Things can drag on for quite longer. It just makes a Grexit more likely."
On the market front, the Euro fell as much as 1.9 percent during today's Asian trading session.
Jeff Carbone, Founder & Senior Partner of Cornerstone Financial Partners, says markets of gold, USD as well as Japanese Yen might get a boost.
[Jeff Carbone, Founder & Senior Partner of Cornerstone Financial Partners] "So its going to see where the euro comes out, it would be an interesting play to whether you use an ETF that shorts Euro. ETF thats going to be more focused on owning european stocks, that may benefit from a rising dollar, and weaken euro, theres definitely some positions to have."
In sum, a new chapter of uncertainty has opened up with the Greek crisis. More clarity on the eventual outcome is unlikely until the following Sunday and likely beyond.
CNBC's Qian Chen, reporting from Singapore.