Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's latest proposal, accepting the creditors' conditions but with some changes, has European stocks higher this morning. But the never-ending Game Theory goes on.
What does the euro zone leadership want? At this point, that seems pretty obvious. They want to get rid of Tsipras and the whole Greek leadership. They want to negotiate with a new team.
How do they do that?
1) Close the banks.
2) Tell Greek citizens that a "no" vote on Sunday is a vote against euro membership.
3) Make a public statement that "there is no basis for serious negotiations with Greece at the moment" (exactly what German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble said this morning).
4) Bet a "yes" vote will likely mean the government will fall and a national unity government will be put in place. Tsipras gone.
This may be working. Once banks were closed, it appears there may be a majority for a "yes" on the referendum.
What does Tsipras want? That is almost impossible to gauge and is the biggest problem. He says he wants to stay in the euro, but no one believes it. He wants to keep his job, but it's not clear what path he can take to achieve that. He can still stir the pot with new ideas like a referendum, but he is getting boxed in quickly.
That makes him very dangerous. There will be more maneuvering before Sunday.