Following Greece's resounding "no" vote in Sunday's referendum, global banks have upped their stakes on the debt-mired nation quitting the euro zone, with a "Grexit" now viewed by many as more likely than not.
Analysts and economists from banks including JPMorgan, Barclays, Unicredit and Societe Generale have upped their forecasts on the likelihood of a Grexit, making it their base-case scenario. The severely weakened banking system is the main concern, with some suggesting a referendum of the Greek people on the country's membership of the euro zone could be the next step in the warring between Greece and its international creditors.
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"Our base case is that the pressures coming from a dysfunctional banking system in Greece will shorten the time horizon to negotiate a deal to a handful of weeks," said JP Morgan analyst, Malcolm Barr, in a research note on Monday.
"As that pressure builds, there is likely to be a temptation to call a referendum in Greece on euro membership, and for the state to begin issuing IOUs or similar and giving these some status as legal tender. This is a path that suggests to us that there is now a high likelihood of Greek exit from the euro and possibly under chaotic circumstances."