Futures Now

History shows crude could fall another 45%: Expert

History shows crude could fall another 45%: Expert
Futures Now, July 7, 2015
When the oil selling will stop: Commodities expert

Crude oil prices have been getting pummeled.

Continued fear over the crisis in Greece and worries over the state of China's economy have helped push the commodity to its lowest level since mid-April, down more than 12 percent in the past five trading sessions. And one expert claims that if history is any indication, oil could drop another 45 percent from current levels.

"Since June of last year oil is down about [50] percent, but we've seen worse drops than that in history," commodities expert Jodie Gunzberg said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." Gunzberg pointed to the declines in 1985 to 1986, 1997 to 1998 and most recently 2008 to 2009, where crude oil fell 75 percent in a little more than seven months. "So from current levels the index could drop another 45 percent before surpassing its worst historical loss."

To note, Gunzberg is referring the total return, which includes the cost of rolling each oil futures contract over to the next month.

According to Gunzberg, in order for oil to stabilize, the market will need to see a drop in open interest. "Historically in high-volatility periods, open interest has collapsed every time before oil bottomed," said Gunzberg, global head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "If open interest collapses, then production may slow as insurance in the futures market becomes too expensive, causing producers to pull back supply."

Crude oil closed Tuesday down less than 1 percent at $52.33.

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And the selling doesn't stop with crude oil, as Gunzberg pointed out that historical low suggests the metal could see another 50 percent loss before bottoming. "Copper has been dying a slow death really since 2011 and from its historical values the [commodity] could continue to fall before hitting new lows," she said. Since its 2011 high of $4.64, copper has fallen more than 48 percent.

Of course, not everyone sees more selling for these commodities. Technical analyst Katie Stockton from BTIG said she's not convinced the breakdowns are "real" and we could see crude and copper begin to bounce back.

And a note from Citigroup published Tuesday said the firm's view is "that the fundamentals across most commodities do not warrant the selloff that has recently occurred" and it expects them to rise throughout the quarter.