The Turkish lira, which is under constant downward trajectory against the G10 currency, bounced back upon the news. Turkey is a major importer of oil, and with Iran producing more, it will not only bring Turkey's oil cost lower, but it will also help expand its exports of goods and services to Iran. Shares of Turkish Airlines popped on the news as this raises more prospects of business travel between the two countries.
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The Iran deal will also be propitious for Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Both economies have been diversifying their economies into real estate and Iran is a neighbor. Vast numbers of Iranians go to Dubai for holidays. With sanction being lifted, this will persuade them to buy holiday homes and expand their businesses in this region. We've seen real-estate stocks rebound and we do believe this trend will continue over time.
Another frontier economy, which is being assessed by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to be included in its emerging-market list, is Pakistan. The country has been struggling with a shortage of natural gas in recent years and on Tuesday, it reconfirmed its commitment to a gas pipeline with Iran which will be completed once the sanction are lifted. Therefore, raising curtain on sanctions will not only help Iran to produce more oil, but we trust its other energy sector will also see a lift off.
Two of the major players during these negotiations that cannot be ignored were China and Russia. It is relatively effortless to gauge why China wants Iran to sign the nuclear deal — so that there is increased availability of cheap oil. And Russia, by agreeing to this deal, not only burnishes its relationship with Iran, but at the same time it reduces conflict with the U.S. as U.S. sanctions are crippling Russia's economy, along with lower oil prices. Russia's play is certainly long term, and, while Iran will be a competitor in oil markets, the country understands its losses will be covered through other dealings with Iran.
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Finally, the U.S. will benefit with lower oil prices. There is no doubt that there could be more damage to the U.S. shale oil industry with Iran coming back online. However, given that shale rig counts have been picking up for the past two consecutive weeks even at current prices, this shows that the rig operators are finding more efficient techniques. Moreover, with the average consumer saving more due to lower oil prices, we expect them to spend more — something which we have been waiting to see.
The Iran nuclear deal will lower oil prices on the one hand, but on the other hand, growth issues will be addressed in emerging and frontier economies, which will provide more demand for oil over the long term. Negotiators have made history and this can only be seen as something that could bring solutions to the world's problems and will provide a more nuclear-free environment.
Commentary by Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade. Follow him on Twitter @NAEEMASLAM23.