Alexander Kliment, director of Russia and emerging market research at Eurasia Group, told CNBC that if the Russians seriously wanted to scuttle an Iran deal, they had plenty of chances to do so.
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"The short-term oil price drop, if and when it materializes, will hit Russia, but for the Kremlin, that's a manageable price to pay in order to avoid a nuclear arms race in the Middle East or a U.S./Israeli strike on Iran, both of which have always been far worse options from the Russian perspective," Kliment said.
"In addition," he added, "easing the U.N. arms embargo will open up a potentially lucrative market for Russian arms exporters, who have already built good ties with the Islamic Republic."
Exports of oil and natural gas are the backbone of Russia's economy, and falling oil prices coupled with Western sanctions have taken a heavy toll on Russia's economy.
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Morse said he's already bearish on oil prices now and sees softer prices in the fourth quarter, with slightly higher prices going into next year.
"But if Iran produces with a surge, it should weigh heavily of oil prices," he told CNBC. "We are looking for a modest recovery of WTI to $56 in 2016, but a surge in Iranian production would make that unlikely."
Matthew Rojansky, director of the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center, noted that while things could get tough for Russia if oil prices drop, Moscow itself had been instrumental in achieving this deal.
"Certainly, it reinforces the value of the Kerry-Lavrov track," he told CNBC, referring to Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov.