CCTV Script 23/07/15

– This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on July 23, Thursday.

Welcome to CNBC Business Daily, I'm Qian Chen.

With the Fed looking to tighten at a time when the European Central Bank and Japan are continuing easier policy, we might see a perfect storm brewing for commodities.

From gold to copper, from oil to sugar, commodities have been facing a perfect storm for the past 12 months.

However, some analysts still see commodities markets headed for another bad year on glut.

The World Bank said in a recent report that, "All main commodity price indices are expected to decline in 2015, mainly due to abundant supplies, and in the case of industrial commodities, weak demand."

And what will this bear market of commodities bring to the global economies?

For EMs, there seem to be greater concerns.

At a country level, analysts say, many emerging markets that have relied on external demand for their commodities and other exports have failed to deliver productivity gains to drive growth at home and now face years of subpar performance.

Figures show that unemployment in emerging markets has risen from 5.2% to 5.7% since the start of the year.

And IMF recently warned that overall EMs would see GDP growth of just about 5% in the near future, down from the 7% level during the pre-crisis period.

Now, miners have been hit badly.

Commodity prices - including major Australian exports like iron ore and coal -are expected to hit rock-bottom in the second half of 2015 before picking up in 2016, according to the World Bank's third-quarter commodity markets outlook.

[Gaurav Sodhi, Resource Analyst at Intelligent Investor] "It's clear that Iron ore prices will continue falling until supply is taken out. Now the existing miners have shown trementous tenacity hanging in there, but you can see, Fortescue has cut costs. The iron ore prices will continue to fall until the supply is taken out, so it could get low as $30 I think."

A broad selloff in commodities and dollar strength point to disinflationary pressures on the horizon that weaken the argument for a near-term rise in U.S. interest rates, according to some analysts.

The Fed is expected to hold off on raising interest rates until prices start to pick up. Data released last week showed the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3 percent in June after a 0.4 percent rise in May, pushing the year-on-year CPI rate into positive territory for the first time since December.

Other analysts, however, said there was another way to look at the selloff in commodity prices.

The fall in oil, for instance, puts more money back in the pockets of consumers and businesses, which helps boost growth and reflate the economy longer-term, they argued.

CNBC's Qian Chen, reporting from Singapore.

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