- This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on July 27, Monday.
Welcome to CNBC Business Daily, I'm Qian Chen.
All eyes this week are on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision and the U.S. second-quarter growth report.
"The key event is without dispute the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] decision on Wednesday. While almost no one is expecting the Fed to raise interest rates in its July meeting, everyone is watching for their comments, particularly on the economic and inflation outlook," IG's market strategist Bernard Aw wrote in a note.
There will be no press conference, nor will the Committee update its forecasts and so the only immediate clues will be in the post meeting press statement.
Aw believes that the world's most influential central bank is poised to raise rates from near zero this year, as U.S. jobs data improve and global risk events, namely Greece and China, subside. However, caution may be warranted with inflation remaining stubbornly lower than the central bank's targeted 2 percent rate.
Federal Reserve economic projections were "inadvertently" posted to the central bank's website last month, the Fed said on Friday.
Part of that update included staff economic forecasts that are confidential FOMC information, but nonetheless was being kept online "because the information has already been released," the Fed said in a press release.
Staff at the Federal Reserve board see a single quarter-point U.S. rate hike by year's end, inflation stuck in low gear for five more years, and an economy growing more slowly than expected by U.S. policymakers.
Consistent with security procedures, the Fed said that the mistaken early release had been referred to the Board's Inspector General.
"There are some concerns that the strengthening dollar is dampening inflationary pressure, which would cloud the Fed's judgment on when to raise rates. Nonetheless, Fed chair Yellen remains adamant that the central bank will start normalizing interest rates this year, although increases will be gradual," the Singapore-based strategist added.
The release of U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Thursday will also be a key swing factor for risk appetite. According to economists polled by Reuters, the world's top economy likely grew 2.50 percent in the April-June period, regaining strength after expanding a meager 0.2 percent in the first three months of 2015 on the back of bad weather and softer energy prices.
[Don Hanna, Managing Director, Hanna-Roubini Global Economics] "If you have a generally lower level of commodity prices, broadly not just gold, yes your inflation pressure is generally more muted. The question is more about what's going on with US demand, then with the cost pressure. That's still the question of the labor market, how much tightening is going on there, there's still not that much pressure on wages. So what you are look for is what you just said, is question of do you start in September or do you think start in December. (What do you think?) I still think we'll start in September."
CNBC's Qian Chen, reporting from Singapore.
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