Value retailers to post better earnings: Analyst

Retail tale of two halves?

Retailers are coming under pressure as tourism numbers drop and consumers stash away gasoline savings, but investors should watch value names this earnings season, Telsey Advisory Group CEO Dana Telsey said Monday.

"What are we going to see from off price? That's going to be interesting," she told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

Telsey made her comments ahead of a busy week for retail earnings. Macy's reports on Wednesday, followed a day later by Dillard's, Kohl's and Nordstrom. J.C. Penney rounds out the week when it reports Friday.

Department store operators that have loyalty programs like Kohl's should perform better, Telsey said.

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J.C. Penney could also surprise, she added, noting vendors have made positive comments about the retailer's sell through, a measure of goods sold to customers versus those received at wholesale.

The second half of 2015 could look better following a weak first two quarters for retail sales, Telsey said, noting that she is seeing some "newness" in product for the first time this year.

She said she anticipates some improvement in denim and sustained strength in active wear. Meanwhile, jewelry is working, and cosmetics "continues to be on fire."

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However, headwinds are still blowing through the remainder of the year, Telsey said.

"It certainly seems the savings from lower oil prices is going into consumer savings, not really discretionary spending," she said.

Retailers with big flagships in New York City, such as Macy's, may also get pinched by weak tourist traffic.

"Everyone's being impacted by the fewer overseas tourists that are here, and the locals aren't making up the spending," she said.

—Neither Dana Telsey nor her family owns shares of the companies. Telsey Advisory Group does not hold greater than a 1 percent share of the stocks, nor does it provide investment banking services to the companies.