The Fed rate hike derby keeps getting more and more intense.
A growing consensus of market experts—particularly economists and strategists—believes the Federal Reserve will increase rates in September for the first time since 2006. Traders in fed futures, though, tell a different story.
Probability for a move next month plunged to 24 percent Thursday as gauged by the CME's FedWatch barometer. That's off from 45 percent the day before and reflective of sentiment after the minutes of the Fed's July meeting hit the tape Wednesday. (Tweet This) Central bank officials appeared torn between hiking and staying put as they praised the strength of the job market but worried over persistently low inflation.
October's chances for a hike plummeted from nearly 50 percent to 32 percent, while December went from about 73 percent to 59 percent.
Overnight indexed swap rates also argue against a rate rise, with traders assigning a 32 percent chance to such a move even after positive economic data Thursday.
But hold on: The consensus is far from settled. Multiple Wall Street experts continue to think the Fed will move in September, with some contending one factor is simply a desire to get it out of the way and stop the endless back-and-forth debate.