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Cramer: Have we bottomed? How low we can go

After a day of bloodshed on the averages, Jim Cramer took the time to talk about the downside. And no, he is not going to call a bottom in the market. The asymmetrical nature of a selloff makes it very hard to say anything positive and very easy to go extremely negative.

"For most commentators, there is very little upside in trying to call a bottom. If you are wrong, everybody thinks you're a charlatan, but if you get it right, everyone assumed you just got lucky," the "Mad Money" host said.

Cramer has heard many investors speculate that the selloff on Monday is reminiscent of the selloff that occurred between 2007 and 2009. He finds that absolutely preposterous, as that crash was all about systematic risk to the U.S. banking system. What ails the stock market these days is coming from overseas, not systematic risk in the U.S. economy.

"Anyone who says this is 2008 all over again is out of their mind," Cramer added. (Tweet This)

Cramer is also dismissive of anyone who claims that the decline can go another 25 percent down after a day like Monday. That kind of a correction points to genuine systematic risk, and Cramer does not agree that is what has occurred.

To paint a clear picture for investors of what could play out in their portfolio on the downside; Cramer reviewed three strikes that could hit the market hard.





A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Getty Images
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
"Anyone who says this is 2008 all over again is out of their mind" -Jim Cramer

The first strike would happen if the Fed does not make a statement that 2015 is a rate hike-free zone.

Strike two would happen if the Chinese continued to try to prop up the market, and it failed. That would reveal that the Communist Party is powerless, and its investors are penniless. Cramer thinks the Chinese stock market will not be fairly valued until there is a 33 percent decline that wipes out all gains it has had in the past year.

Strike three would be if the dollar continues to reign over other currencies. Cramer fears that U.S. manufacturing companies and international companies will be subject to endless number cuts, oil will drop further to prompt bankruptcies.

Heck, even if China were to devalue its currency again, then it's really three strikes and the U.S. is out.

This situation reminded Cramer of the 17 percent decline in 2011 when investors thought that Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Greece would all default.

Read more from Mad Money with Jim Cramer

Cramer Remix: Beware! How China's fall impacts US
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Cramer: Avoid these horrifying stocks in a selloff

The "Mad Money" host finds this situation most relevant because back then it signaled a potential Great Depression in Europe, U.S. banks were still reeling from what happened in the Great Recession and the job market was not yet robust.

If Monday's selloff is indeed reminiscent of 2011, then Cramer expects the market to go down another 6 to 7 percent from here. That means investors will need to get back into the market quickly, and that doesn't seem realistic to Cramer to be so nimble.

"To me, that says stay the course unless you're fully invested or on margin, in which case you should do some selling," Cramer said. (Tweet This)

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