If this chart is right, we might not recover until November

A lot of people talk about calendar effects in the market, but most of that relates to months or seasons (or election cycles or Super Bowls or whatever). But if you look at the actual performance every single day of the market, you actually see it peaks in late August, and doesn't recover until November.

You can see that by going back over 35 years and looking at the performance of the S&P 500 every single day.

Every. Single. Day.

I took the average of every single Jan. 2. And every single Jan. 3. And Jan. 4, and so on. Every day of the year, since 1978, and built out the "average" path of the calendar throughout the year. This is what the market generally does on a daily basis.

It turns out that right now—in late August—is when we see a peak and collapse. The market tends to fall down exactly at this point of the year—not recovering until November.

So, here we are again: It's late August and the markets are falling apart. If the average calendar is right, we won't be getting new highs until we're past Halloween. Buckle up.

Read MoreThe market isn't up until we break through this trendline.

(This article has been corrected to reflect updating scaling in the chart.)