Market Insider

Fed's move on rates still a close call

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Whatever the Fed does in the week ahead will surprise about half of Wall Street—and that could mean an extra dose of volatility in already rocking markets.

Based on the futures market, traders were betting as of Friday that there's just a 25 percent chance the Fed will move off its zero rate policy for the first time in more than six years. But Wall Street's economists are closer to evenly split on whether the central bank will announce a rate hike Thursday, after its two-day meeting.

"To me, there's great volatility whether they do it, or don't do it," said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. "That's what I find interesting about the Fed decision. If they say they are waiting they're going to create volatility. If they don't go on Thursday, there's going to be volatility."