The trade: If the Fed does this, do this

Published Mon, Sep 14 20153:18 PM EDT

The Federal Reserve's highly anticipated policy meeting this Thursday could be setting up a short-term trade in certain areas of the market, if history is any guide. The central bank appears close to an interest rate hike, the first such move since 2006, but it is unclear whether that will come this week or next month or even December. So what do you buy Thursday at 2 p.m. ET after the decision hits? Here's the trade if the Fed hikes rates, as well as what you should do if they keep them the same... Since 1983, there have been 63 instances when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its Fed funds rate, according to Kensho, a quantitative tool used by hedge funds. Within five trading days of a rate hike, all 10 S & P sectors were in the red, led to the downside by materials , down on average 1.3 percent, results show. On the contrary, the two groups with the fewest losses were consumer staples and technology names, down 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively one week out. A similar search for the times of a "first" rate hike during the periods between 1994-95, 1999-2000, 2004-06 as well as the one-off rate hike in March 1997, are consistent with the previous screen, showing a negative bias towards materials, health-care and consumer discretionary stocks, according to Kensho. During these four times, technology shares were down the least, posting an average loss of 0.2 percent, while energy managed to log a gain in three out of four times, up on average 1 percent, five days after the Fed's move. Overall, overseas markets were also down across the board following a "first" rate hike, particularly those in Asia. Read More Listen to Tepper, don't drown with these stocks Japan's Nikkei , for example, was down on average 2.3 percent compared with an average loss of 1.6 percent for the S & P 500, Kensho data shows. As equities markets pull back, gold tends to do well, up, on average, 0.2 percent in the five trading days following the hike. The money play: At the asset class level, as shown on the analysis above, material stocks along with international markets tend to perform the worst in the five days after a "first" rate hike. At the individual stock level, companies such as Waste Management , Starbucks and Starwood Hotels & Resorts performed the worst with average losses between 7 and 13 percent in the five days after a hike, according to Kensho. On the contrary, technology and gold appear to hold up their value. At the individual company level, shares of Apple , Time Warner and Intel performed the best, up between 3 and 7 percent, on average one week out. Since Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen has been at the helm, FOMC meetings have been categorized by market gains, with the Russell 2000 index positing the largest increase, up on average 1 percent, according to Kensho. The S & P sectors with the biggest odds to rise are health care and telecom , up about 1 percent, as investors rush back to high-yielding stocks. In comparison, commodities such as gold, oil and natural gas performed the worst. If the Fed decides to maintain its zero-rate policy, the focus of the statement will be on the forward guidance, if any, of when the rate hike will take place, which many believe is inevitable as the U.S. economy picks up steam. Disclosure: NBCUniversal, parent of CNBC, is a minority investor in Kensho.

A New York Stock Exchange trader works as a television on the floor of the NYSE shows Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaking after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. (File photo)

Jin Lee | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Federal Reserve's highly anticipated policy meeting this Thursday could be setting up a short-term trade in certain areas of the market, if history is any guide.

The central bank appears close to an interest rate hike, the first such move since 2006, but it is unclear whether that will come this week or next month or even December.

So what do you buy Thursday at 2 p.m. ET after the decision hits?

Here's the trade if the Fed hikes rates, as well as what you should do if they keep them the same...