The odds of a global recession taking hold in the next 20 months are now better than 50 percent, The Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar said Tuesday.
"Central banks have guaranteed a messy outcome from the reversal of policy," the chief market analyst told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." "There's going to be a recession when central bank policy reverses. It's inevitable."
In Europe and Japan, central banks are in the midst of bond-buying programs aimed at propping up their economies, while the U.S. Federal Reserve has held its benchmark interest rates for short-term borrowing near zero since December 2008.
The Fed should raise its fed funds rates when it meets this week, or else the impacts will only get worse the longer it waits, Boockvar said.
He expects the Federal Open Market Committee will do just that, and will soothe markets with dovish language that assures investors the pace of increases will be gradual. The short-term impact, he said, will not be much different than doing nothing.
On the other hand, by not taking any action, the Fed would be telling markets there will be a time in the future better suited for monetary policy tightening, and the fact is there is no good time, Boockvar said.
Investors should view a recession as a "healthy cleansing" that sets up the economy for a better recovery, rather than something to avoid at all costs, he added.