Here's why the Fed knows better than to hike now

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How the Fed rate hike affects the stock market

There's one very good reason the Federal Reserve won't vote to raise interest rates: History.

While many surveys of Wall Street experts—including one by CNBC—indicate a belief that the Federal Open Market Committee will vote Thursday in favor of a rate increase for the first time in more than nine years, futures traders are betting against it.

That alone, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis, will be enough for the Fed to wait at least one more month before liftoff.

Lessons learned in 1994 that reverberated into 1999 and 2004 will preclude a rate hike until the futures market prices one in, analysts Guneet Dhingra and Matthew Hornbach said in a note to clients.

"The Fed prefers to avoid delivering big surprises," they said.