Here's why the Fed knows better than to hike now

How the Fed rate hike affects the stock market

There's one very good reason the Federal Reserve won't vote to raise interest rates: History.

While many surveys of Wall Street experts—including one by CNBC—indicate a belief that the Federal Open Market Committee will vote Thursday in favor of a rate increase for the first time in more than nine years, futures traders are betting against it.

That alone, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis, will be enough for the Fed to wait at least one more month before liftoff.

Lessons learned in 1994 that reverberated into 1999 and 2004 will preclude a rate hike until the futures market prices one in, analysts Guneet Dhingra and Matthew Hornbach said in a note to clients.

"The Fed prefers to avoid delivering big surprises," they said.