When it comes to investing this year, there's no place like home.
Homebuilding stocks are up more than 7 percent in 2015, widely outperforming the S&P 500 (down 4 percent), as builder confidence in the nation's housing market has soared to prerecession highs. And according to one top technician, there's about to be a breakout for one name in particular that's closely tied to the housing industry: Home Depot.
"This is obviously one of the largest stocks in the market and as the technical expression goes, it acts well," Carter Worth said Friday on CNBC's "Options Action." Home Depot is up more than 10 percent year to date and is the third best-performing stock in the during that period.
Looking at a one-year chart of Home Depot compared to the consumer discretionary sector and S&P 500 index, Worth, head of technical analysis at Cornerstone Macro, noted the stock's relative outperformance. "Home Depot has been up 8 out of the last 10 months compared to the market." Shares of the retailer have risen more than 25 percent in the last 12 months while the S&P 500 is down more than 1 percent and the consumer discretionary sector is up 11.5 percent in the same period.
But perhaps most important to Worth is the stock's inverse correlation to the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield. "The torque starts as there was more and more easing from the Federal Reserve," said Worth. "If you take a look at where QE3 started, that's exactly where Home Depot really started to explode." The third round of quantitative easing began in September 2012, and since then Home Depot has rallied 104 percent.
"We learned [Thursday] that the Fed isn't moving," said Worth. "We view this as an opportunity to stick with a winner," he added. "Home Depot is going higher. Buy it."
