Mad Money

Cramer: We are getting closer to a bottom

Cramer: Closer to a bottom every day
Cramer: Closer to a bottom every day

Yes, Jim Cramer has been a bear lately. And guess what? He has been right, even though there was a late afternoon rebound on Tuesday. It seems that everyone has adopted a bearish outlook recently, which made Cramer even more worried.

There is plenty for the "Mad Money" host to dislike about the market recently, it seems that most other commentators are also bears, which prompted Cramer to clarify what would make him more constructive right now despite the endless torture.

"The Fed's indecision is a huge part of the overhang. Sometimes I wonder what do they know that we don't. What is the looming event they are so worried about?" Cramer asked.

And it's not just the Fed that Cramer doesn't like right now. It is a combination of the political backdrop, no one caring about a weakening dollar, Chinese struggles and good news meaning nothing these days that has him on edge.

"I don't hear much bullish commentary anymore from anyone. I feel most commentators have joined me in the bearish camp, and that's worrisome. The consensus is rarely right when people are all in, no matter what the direction," Cramer said.

Yes, there is more pain ahead, but the saving grace is that we are getting closer to a bottom by the day
Jim Cramer
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Lucas Jackson | Reuters

Additionally Cramer has heard from many investors who have adopted a tortured and ugly sentiment. More likely, the market could be due for a bounce just based on the horrendous sentiment alone.

But most important, Cramer noted that empirically something has changed. Of the 1,500 stocks that are part of the S&P, 117 are down 50 percent from their highs. 600 stocks are down 25 percent from their highs.

That is staggering.

Cramer suspects that the majority of stocks will need to be down 25 percent for the market carnage to come to an end. With this in mind, he does think that there is more pain on the way simply because there are so many broken charts, broken funds and broken concepts that can't stop falling.

"As a defender of your capital, I am not going to let my guard down, but I am also not going to say 'nothing's really gone down and the rollovers have just begun.' They've been going on for months," Cramer said.

However there are stocks that Cramer remains constructive on, and if he weren't restricted he would be buying them for his charitable trust. He likes Eli Lilly, General Mills, ConAgra and is even willing to add McDonald's to the list.

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So while that is not a long list, Cramer remains convinced that this market is more like what happened in 2011. That puts the downside target for the Dow at 15,231 and the at 1,768. Those levels are not far from where they closed on Tuesday.

In 2011 there was systematic risk to the U.S. banking structure. This time, the systematic risk that Cramer sees is offshore, and there is also political toxicity happening in the U.S. That is why he thinks the comparison still holds up.

"Yes, there is more pain ahead, but the saving grace is that we are getting closer to a bottom by the day," Cramer said. (Tweet this)

The torture might seem endless, but each day brings us closer to the end of this pain.

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