Jim Cramer waved goodbye to September and a horrendous third quarter on Wednesday. The market declined almost 10 percent during that time, and every rally turned out to be a trap or a sucker's game, even though it ended on a positive note.
"We did not see a lot of buying today, we just saw an absence of selling. They are different, and a pause in selling can take us higher, but not so high that it is worth plunging in with both feet," the "Mad Money" host said.
Cramer pointed out that investors are still in a bear market that needs to run its course. And most of the bear markets that he has lived through had to do with overvaluation, coupled with a shock to the system that created the wave of stocks for sale.
This bear market is certainly similar. Stocks did get expensive, but that is because interest rates have been so low. However, valuations have not been insane.
The best comparison that Cramer finds to this bear is from 2011, when stocks plunged 17 percent from peak to trough, even as though many stocks far exceeded that decline.
"If a 2011-style bear market plays out, I believe that the Dow is roughly 1,000 points away from hitting what could be an intermediate term bottom, and the S&P has another 90 points to fall…before we can get a long-lasting bounce," Cramer said.