"Brands are starting to discover the fact that consumers are experiencing new menu burnout," Tristano wrote. "This year marked the first year in a decade that top chain restaurant menus declined in total menu offering."
At the retail level, growth is also showing signs of slowing.
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For the year ending July 26, sales of pumpkin-flavored items rose 11.6 percent, the slowest growth in at least three years, according to Nielsen data. Declines in pumpkin-flavored coffee, milk and frozen waffles, pancakes and French toast were especially steep. Still, pumpkin-flavored item sales remain a large market, clocking in at $360 million at retail outlets, including grocery and convenience stores.
So if pumpkin has reached saturation, which seasonal item will start to take share? This is difficult to predict, Tristano says, adding it's possible other seasonal flavors like gingerbread, molasses, peppermint or eggnog could increase.