It seems that some traders are seeing a bottom for oil.
On Thursday, the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) saw four times its average daily call volume, indicating bullish bets from traders. One trader bought 60,000 of the December 20/21 call spreads for $0.06 each, paying a $360,000 premium on a bet that USO breaks above $20 by December expiration.
So far, the trade hasn't been working very well. On Friday, USO fell 2 percent, trading around $14. The ETF has fallen 30 percent year to date.
According to CNBC contributor Dan Nathan, the options market is indicating little likelihood of this trade being profitable. For USO to get to the $20 level, it would need to rally more than 40 percent by December.
"The options market is placing a very low probability that this trade is in the money," Nathan said Thursday on CNBC's "Fast Money." However, "it could be a leveraged trade for an existing long."
Crude oil has also tumbled this year, down 17 percent year to date.
"It's obviously trying to put a bottom in. Some of those guys think it has bottomed," Nathan said.