Earnings may look bad, but…

Earnings are expected to slide 4.8 percent in the third quarter versus the same period of 2014. But there's at least one saving grace amid the anticipated weakness.

"As we go through earnings season, it's going to be commodity impact versus noncommodity impact," Oppenheimer's head of portfolio strategy, Andrew Burkly, said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "There's a huge gap between, for example, the energy sector, and areas that have very little impact from commodities, like financials, health care and consumer discretionary."

Indeed, while analysts expect S&P 500 energy companies to report an overall earnings decline of 65 percent, and the materials sector to report a 20 percent drop, consumer discretionary stocks should see year-over-year earnings growth of 10 percent (per FactSet).

"That gap is one of the widest we've even seen," Burkly said.

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And when it comes to the strength of the overall economy, strong consumer discretionary earnings may be sending a stronger positive signal than the negative signal weak energy company earnings send, particularly because energy companies have been weighed down by sliding global oil prices.

"When we talk about overall earnings for the market being down, it sounds really negative," but the headline number makes the results sound more bearish than they really look, said Burkly.

Nonetheless, when 5 out of the 10 S&P sectors are projected to see earnings drop, it's never a good thing.


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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