In fact, strategists say more clarity on what the Fed might do should come from the employment report the following week. Market expectations put a less than 5 percent chance on the Fed raising rates at its two-day October meeting, and the odds are not even that high for the Fed's December meeting.
"I think a lot hinges on the employment report, whether December is generally live as well. The market's presumption is that the December meeting is barely alive," said Alan Ruskin, head of G-10 currency strategy at Deutsche Bank. He said expectations might rise if there were employment reports of even 175,000 in November and December. "These are conditions the Fed thought would warrant a tightening back in September. Why not now? I think December is probably more alive than the market presumes but we need the validation from the employment data."